With the resumption of Red Sea shipping, global container capacity overcapacity could reach as high as 15% next year.

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2025-12-05 17:17

The shipping fee war is about to erupt.

Recently, a minor episode arose in the industry regarding the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea: The Suez Canal Authority, in its discussions with Maersk CEO Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen, ... Vincent Clerc ) announced after the joint press conference: Maersk will... Will resume starting from early December this year. Red Sea-Suez Canal Voyage Details However, Maersk subsequently “denied the rumor,” stating, “The company has not yet determined a specific date for resuming navigation through the Suez Canal.”

However, whether it’s the early December date suggested by the Suez Canal or the “date to be confirmed” mentioned by Maersk, the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea is bound to become the general trend—what remains is merely a matter of time.

According to the latest information: A new analysis by British shipping brokerage Braemar shows that if container shipping companies fully resume operations on the Red Sea route in 2026, this... This could push the overcapacity in the container shipping fleet to 14-15%.

By 2027, as a large amount of new capacity is added, This figure could reach an astonishing 20%.

British shipping brokerage Braemar said, The current number of ship orders placed by container shipping companies. Far exceeds expected demand The global total of ship orders currently stands at approximately 10 million TEUs. 20-foot container).

However, the lengthy route绕ing the Red Sea and southern Africa has absorbed capacity, enabling shipping companies to delay the negative impacts of an overabundance of vessels in their fleets.

Braemar forecasts that by 2025, container shipping capacity will be oversupplied by 13-14%. However, due to detours around the Red Sea, the overcapacity has been reduced to between 3.5% and 4%.

If container shipping companies resume operations now, the sailing distances on major east-west routes—particularly those from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia to the U.S. East Coast—will be shortened by 20% to 25%.

Braemar wrote that the time and distance saved will enable the fleet to carry 2.5 million TEUs, which would otherwise have been used for longer voyages.

The Red Sea will fully resume operations in 2026.

Earlier this week, Maersk’s CEO Ke Wensheng ( Vincent Clerc) A meeting was held with Osama Rabie, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, after which discussions about returning to the Suez Canal were once again put back on the agenda.

After the meeting, the Suez Canal Authority announced on social media that Maersk and CMA CGM could begin their return journeys as early as December.

In a statement posted on X, the Suez Canal Authority announced: “Ships under Maersk will once again transit the Suez Canal in early December, as preparations are underway to resume full-capacity operations. CMA CGM will also resume full-capacity operations in December.”

Maersk and its alliance partner Hapag-Lloyd have consistently refrained from setting a timetable for resuming operations in the Red Sea. However, Maersk pointed out that it will now “take steps to resume navigation.”

However, due to the uncertainty of the situation, Braemar It is expected that even if shipping companies resume operations at the start of the new year, they will not fully restore Red Sea route services until at least mid-2026.

“However, some shipping companies may be eager to take swift action to secure a competitive edge in terms of reduced transit times and leverage the restored speed to gain market share. This suggests that the pace of recovery across the industry could vary,” the brokerage firm wrote.

If container shipping companies fully return to the Suez routes in 2026, Braemar believes this will likely increase fleet overcapacity by 14-15%.

Braemar believes that if container shipping companies fully resume operations on the Suez Canal route in 2026, this could increase fleet capacity surplus by 14-15%.

However, as container shipping companies will take delivery of more ships in 2027, Braemar expects that overcapacity here could reach 19-20%.

However, as container shipping companies receive more vessels in 2027, Braemar expects the overcapacity here could reach 19-20%.

END

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