A fragile ceasefire in Iraq, Trump's tariff policy laying landmines: Warning of the world's three biggest black swan events in the second half of 2025

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2025-06-26 11:58

I. Trump's Public Statements from June 25th to 26th

The Israeli-Iranian Conflict and Nuclear Issues
During the NATO Hague Summit on June 25th, Trump stated that the Israeli-Iranian conflict could "erupt again soon," but simultaneously stressed that he was "very confident" the conflict was over. He claimed that Iranian nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed," that the nuclear program had been set back "decades," and revealed that he would be entering into nuclear agreement negotiations with Iran next week, but stressed that he "didn't think such agreements were very necessary." The US Central Intelligence Agency confirmed on the same day that key Iranian nuclear facilities had been severely damaged and would require years to rebuild. However, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif countered that the attack had instead strengthened Iran's determination to advance its nuclear program, stating that "no one is willing to give up nuclear technology."

Support for Israel
Trump publicly defended Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on social media, calling for the dismissal of his corruption trial or a pardon. He also pressured Israel to "remain calm" after the ceasefire to avoid retaliatory actions against Iran.

No New Developments on Tariff Policy
Search results show that Trump did not announce any new tariff policies between June 25th and 26th. Previously, the US had raised steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 3rd and imposed a 50% tariff on eight categories of steel appliances on June 23rd.

II. US Government Tariff Policy Around June 26th

No New Tariff Measures Announced
As of June 26th, the US government has not released any new tariff policies targeting China. The most recent tariff adjustment was the steel appliance tariff that took effect on June 23rd. However, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced in May that it planned to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, chips, etc., on August 1st, which is currently in the public comment phase.

Current Tariff Impact
After the steel appliance tariffs took effect, the cost of Chinese exports to the US increased significantly. For example, the comprehensive tariff rate for refrigerators with 30% steel content rose from 55% to 67%, increasing the tariff cost of a US$100 refrigerator by approximately US$50. Data from the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products shows that the US imported US$2.91 billion worth of the appliances in question from China in 2024, accounting for 19.3% of global imports.

III. China's Official Response and Changes in Export Data

Strong Statement from the Ministry of Commerce
In response to the US raising steel and aluminum tariffs on June 3rd, China's Ministry of Commerce responded on June 5th, stating that the US's actions were "harmful to both sides" and severely disrupted the global supply chain, urging the US to stop abusing the concept of national security. This stance is consistent with its previous opposition to Section 232 tariffs, emphasizing that it will take necessary measures to protect its rights and interests.

Export Data Dynamics

Steel Industry

In May 2025, China exported 6.33 million tons of steel sheet, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; and 1.8 million tons of bar steel, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%, showing that companies are adjusting their product structure to avoid tariffs.

Appliance Industry

In the first five months, China exported 1.84 billion appliances, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, but the monthly export growth rate slowed to 1.1% in May. In the first five months, appliance exports from the nine cities in the mainland of the Greater Bay Area totaled 136.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, indicating that tariff pressure is beginning to show.

Response Strategies

Companies such as Midea and Gree are avoiding tariffs by setting up overseas factories (such as in Southeast Asia). It is expected that by the end of June, 95% of Midea's exports to the US will be produced overseas.

IV. Latest Developments After the Israeli-Iranian Ceasefire

Military Actions Continue

Israeli Chief of Staff Zamir revealed on the 25th that Israeli ground assault forces had penetrated deep into Iranian territory during the conflict, destroying hundreds of missile launchers and production facilities.

Iran launched missiles at Israel on the 24th, and the Israeli army subsequently launched air strikes on targets inside Iran. Trump accused both sides of "violating the ceasefire agreement," but did not take further military action.

Diplomatic Maneuvering and Nuclear Issues

The US plans to hold talks with Iran next week, but Iran demands the lifting of sanctions as a precondition, and the two sides have significant differences in their positions. Israel insists on "not allowing Iran to have nuclear weapons" and warns that it may launch another attack.

The Iranian parliament passed a bill on the 25th suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in response to the US-Israeli attacks. The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said it was ready to restart repairs to nuclear facilities and stressed that "production will not be interrupted."

Regional and International Reactions

Iranian airspace in the east reopened on the 25th, and Israel announced the resumption of international flights, indicating a partial easing of the situation.

The EU called for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, stressing that "military means cannot replace negotiations." Russia condemned the US-Israeli actions for exacerbating regional instability.

V. Key Variables and Future Risks

EU Tariff Deadline on July 9th
Trump demanded that the EU reach a trade agreement by July 9th, otherwise he would impose a 50% tariff on EU goods. If negotiations break down, it could trigger a full-scale trade war between the US and Europe.

Trends in Iran's Nuclear Activities
Although the US and Israel claim to have destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran has launched a repair plan and may accelerate uranium enrichment activities. If it breaks the limits of the nuclear agreement, it could trigger another round of US strikes.

Internal Divisions in the US
Trump's tariff policies and military actions have drawn criticism from the Democrats, and some Republicans are concerned about being bogged down in the Middle East. If economic data deteriorates, it could weaken his ability to implement policies.

In summary, Trump's tariff policies and the Israeli-Iranian conflict are intertwined, increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty. China needs to counter trade protectionism while responding to challenges through supply chain adjustments and diplomatic mediation. The fragility of the Israeli-Iranian ceasefire indicates that the Middle East situation is still in a "mid-game pause," and long-term peace requires the establishment of institutionalized dialogue mechanisms.

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