Attention! In the past five weeks, 16% of container ship voyages have been canceled; charter rates for East-West and West Africa routes are ranging from USD 18,000 to USD 20,000.

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2026-02-06 17:55

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　　According to Drewry’s analysis, earlier expectations of a seasonal rebound during the Lunar New Year have “already been dashed, as demand remains persistently weak and capacity on east-west trunk routes continues to tighten.” This cooling trend has already been reflected in freight rates. The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell by 10% this week, closing at USD 2,212 per FEU on January 22, confirming that the trend on major routes has shifted.

　　Freight rate pressure is spreading across the board: rates on trans-Pacific routes have dropped by 11%, rates on Asia-Europe/Mediterranean routes have fallen by 9%, and rates on transatlantic routes have further declined by 4%. Meanwhile, shipping companies are stepping up efforts to reduce capacity in order to prevent further deterioration of freight rates.

　　In the next five weeks—from Week 5 to Week 9, spanning from January 26 to March 1—a total of 109 voyages have been canceled out of an anticipated 703 scheduled voyages, accounting for 16% of the planned itineraries. According to a detailed analysis by Drewry, “the cancellations are concentrated primarily on Eastbound Transpacific routes (58%), followed by Asia-Europe/Mediterranean routes (32%) and Westbound Transatlantic routes (10%).” However, Drewry also clarified that 86% of all scheduled routes will still operate as planned.

　　February flight situation worsens.

　　According to Drewry, 107 voyages were already scheduled for cancellation in February, representing a 38% increase from the previous week. This sharp rise indicates that shipping companies are rapidly adjusting their capacity to cope with weak demand.

　　In addition, other factors have further complicated the market, including declining freight rates from Asian origins, mounting pressure on transatlantic routes, and frequent shifts in decision-making regarding the use of Red Sea routes. The consulting firm believes that these factors “have reinforced the perception among both shipping companies and cargo owners that it is increasingly difficult to achieve a balance between supply and demand.”

　　Against this backdrop, Drewry advises shippers to prioritize “clarity of the Suez route, service reliability, and flexible planning” over pursuing short-term cost savings.

　　In the current context of ongoing market imbalances, empty voyages have become a key strategy for shipping companies to manage oversupply and maintain revenue levels.

　　The charter rates for a bulk carrier sailing the South American West Coast (Callao) to Far East route (Figure A) in Week 37 of 2025 are as follows: for a flexible-type vessel, the rate is USD 14,500 per day, equivalent to 100% of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) benchmark, an increase of USD 1,500 from Week 36.

　　Meanwhile, the daily charter rate for Supramax vessels reached USD 21,000, equivalent to 111% of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), up USD 1,000 from the previous week. The daily charter rate for Very Large Handymax vessels was set at USD 23,000, representing 113% of the Baltic Dry Index benchmark, an increase of USD 2,000 from the previous week.

　　On the route from the west coast of South America (Callao) to Northern Europe (Figure B), the daily charter rate for handy-size vessels reached USD 14,000, equivalent to 97% of the BHS benchmark rate, an increase of USD 1,500 compared to Week 36. Meanwhile, the charter rate for ultra-Panamax vessels rose to USD 21,000 per day, representing 111% of the BSI benchmark segment, up USD 1,000 from the previous week.

　　On the one hand, the estimated spot freight rate for shipping 11,000 metric tons of concentrates (copper, zinc, and lead) from Chile to the Far East (Figure C) is approximately USD 50 (medium level), while the estimated freight rate from Peru is USD 40 (slightly below medium level). Furthermore, the minimum estimated freight rate for shipping 22,000 metric tons from Chile is USD 50 (medium-low), whereas from Peru it is USD 40 (low). The estimated freight cost for shipping 22,000 metric tons from Chile to Far Eastern ports—including preliminary voyage costs—is around USD 50 (medium level), while a one-way shipment from Peru would cost only USD 40 (slightly below medium level).

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