Sino-US tariff adjustments trigger shipping boom (Significant increase in China-West Coast international shipping volume)

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2025-06-06 17:55

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Recently, Sea-Intelligence, a Danish maritime data analysis company, released a report on the impact of the pause in the China-US trade war on the shipping market, which attracted widespread attention in the industry. The report points out that with the suspension of the trade war and the surge in related demand, liner companies have quickly injected capacity, and the shipping market is showing a busy scene.

Significant Increase in Asia-North America West Coast Capacity

On the Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC) route, Sea-Intelligence analysts predict that capacity year-on-year growth will exceed 30% for 5 of the next 11 weeks. This data fully demonstrates the importance liner companies attach to this route and their active response to market demand. Looking at the overall situation in June and July, capacity in June increased by 12.8% compared to before the tariff suspension, while capacity injection in July increased by 16.5% compared to before the tariff suspension. Compared to a week ago, the capacity injection for these two months is equivalent to 397,000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of about 18%.

Ports Face Huge Challenges

However, the substantial increase in capacity also brings huge challenges to ports. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, pointed out that whether the tariff-induced surge in volume can match this capacity injection is still an open question. If the volume matches the capacity injection, the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach may face significant problems.

Assuming an 18% year-on-year throughput injection matches the surge in throughput at the Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, the estimated loaded import container throughput for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in June and July will reach new highs. Specifically, Los Angeles's imports in June will almost reach its highest level for 2024, while July's imports will be significantly higher than during the pandemic. Long Beach's throughput in June and July will also set new records.

The pause in the China-US trade war has brought new opportunities and challenges to the shipping market. Liner companies meet market demand by increasing capacity, but they also need to pay attention to the throughput capacity of ports to avoid problems such as congestion. Ports also need to prepare in advance, optimize operational processes, and improve loading and unloading efficiency to cope with potential surges in cargo.

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