International shipping freight rates fell again last week (shipping companies plan to raise rates starting in December)

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2024-11-29 17:18

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on November 22, the SCFI index fell by 91.82 points to 2160.08 points last week, a weekly decline of 4.08%. The four major transoceanic routes to Europe and America all declined, with the West America route experiencing a significant drop.

　　Last week, the freight rate from the Far East to the West America route dropped by $360 to $3821 per FEU, a weekly decline of 8.61%; the freight rate from the Far East to the East America route fell by $65 to $4997 per FEU, a weekly decline of 1.28%; the freight rate from the Far East to Europe dropped by $31 to $2481 per TEU, a weekly decline of 1.23%; and the freight rate from the Far East to the Mediterranean dropped by $9 to $3071 per TEU, a weekly decline of 0.29%.

　　In the near-sea routes, the freight rate from the Far East to Kansai, Japan remained stable compared to the previous week at $304 per TEU; the freight rate from the Far East to Kanto, Japan also remained stable at $305 per TEU; the freight rate from the Far East to Southeast Asia dropped by $23 to $647 per TEU compared to the previous week; and the freight rate from the Far East to South Korea remained stable at $138 per TEU.

　　Industry insiders indicate that the cargo volume on the US routes is average. Although Trump announced significant tariff increases, there are no actual policies or timelines. Even though a small number of customers have pulled goods in advance, it is not enough to affect supply and demand. One of the main reasons for the decline in freight rates on the West America route is the excessive supply of capacity, with rates having dropped by about $1000 over the past three weeks. After the Golden Week in China, the empty sailings have returned to normal, and some vessels on the West South America route affected by the East America strike are gradually returning, but the cargo volume has not significantly increased.

　　In contrast, freight rates on the European routes remain stable. Industry insiders say that the recent vessel loading rates are good, combined with the technical capacity control by shipping companies to stabilize prices. As the final stage for signing new contracts for next year approaches, major shipping companies have successively announced price increase plans effective December 1, raising the freight rate to around $6000 per FEU, an increase of about $1500 to $2000, aiming to boost spot prices to support new contract prices.

　　Looking ahead, it is expected that cargo demand will strengthen towards the end of the year, coinciding with the early arrival of the Spring Festival at the end of January next year, and Trump's inauguration on January 20, which exacerbates concerns over high tariffs. Additionally, the labor negotiations at the East America docks have broken down, and it is expected that the likelihood of reaching a consensus before the January 15 deadline next year is low, raising fears of a restart of the East America strike. These factors will help digest the excess capacity, which is favorable for the performance of shipping companies in 2025.

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