Recently, the United States has introduced several new trade policies, mainly including the following aspects:
. Imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum: On February 10, 2025, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imported into the United States, canceling the previous exemptions for major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and the European Union.
This policy will be added on top of the existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, meaning that steel products from some countries may face a total tariff of 50%, while aluminum products may face a 35% tariff.
• Imposing tariffs on goods from certain countries: On February 1, 2025, Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on goods imported from China. Currently, Chinese goods are subject to a 10% tariff, while goods from Canada and Mexico are subject to a 25% tariff, although the tariff on Canadian energy products is 10%.
• Canceling the "low-value exemption" policy: Starting from February 4, 2025, the United States will terminate the "low-value exemption" policy for goods from China, Mexico, and Canada. This means that goods from these three countries, regardless of their value, must pay tariffs and will no longer enjoy the previous exemption for goods valued under 800. However, the termination of the low-value exemption policy for imports from Mexico and Canada will be postponed until March 2025.
Strengthening customs supervision
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will strengthen the supervision of import documents, tariff classification, and trade routes to ensure compliance with the new regulations. For example, there will be increased scrutiny of e-commerce packages from China. If the product classification, declared value, or documents do not match, it may lead to delays in customs clearance or fines.
"Reciprocal tariff" policy
Trump stated that the "reciprocal tariff" measures will be implemented against all countries that impose tariffs on U.S. products. This means that the U.S. will raise tariff rates to achieve equal treatment in trade with other countries. This measure may be announced soon and take effect quickly.
Other goods tariff plans
Trump also plans to impose tariffs on other goods, including pharmaceuticals, oil, and semiconductors, targeting the EU and other allies. Specific implementation times and rates have not yet been clarified.
The recent adjustments in U.S. trade policies have had various impacts on China, as detailed below:
Rising export costs
• Increased tariffs: The U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, directly raising the costs for Chinese export enterprises. Some companies may choose to lower prices to maintain market share, which could compress profit margins.
• Decreased orders: The increased tariffs have raised procurement costs for U.S. importers, which may lead to reduced demand and subsequently affect the volume of Chinese exports to the U.S. For example, in the early stages of the trade war in 2018, the growth rate of Chinese exports to the U.S. significantly declined.
Decrease in export volume
• Key industries affected: Labor-intensive industries such as electronics, machinery, textiles, and furniture are the most affected. Some companies are facing profit pressures and even being forced to cut production or relocate capacity.
• Loss of market share: To avoid tariffs, some companies have relocated production lines to Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other regions, resulting in a loss of export orders from China.
Supply chain relocation
• Risk of manufacturing outflow: To avoid tariffs, some foreign-funded enterprises have moved production lines to Southeast Asia or Mexico, exacerbating the risk of manufacturing outflow from China. For example, the export shares of countries like Vietnam and India have increased after the trade war.
The impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Chinese economy is multifaceted, involving both short-term direct shocks and long-term indirect effects. Although U.S. protectionist trade policies have put pressure on Chinese exports and related industries, China has effectively responded to these external pressures through various measures, such as optimizing the industrial structure, enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain, and strengthening policy support and international cooperation. These strategies have not only improved the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain but also promoted high-quality economic development.
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