The success of the U.S. line's mid-August rally depends mainly on these three timing points!

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2024-08-09 18:02

Canadian rail workers, U.S. East Terminal labor talks, U.S. rate cut in sight

On the 5th, the container shipping community was relatively resilient to a sharp fall in Taiwan stocks. Many industry leaders shouted with confidence that under the multi-line war between Israel and Iran and their agents, the Red Sea crisis showed no signs of easing in the short term. Container shipping continued to bypass to support the freight rate. Although the freight rate was revised down by 1% in the past month, it still enjoyed huge profits. Next, the shipping industry was watching the face of the US market and grasped the three time when the volume might increase, keep high freight rates.

Freight forwarders revealed that some shipping companies are planning to raise the U.S. line in mid-August. The key to the success of the raise can be observed at three timing points:

First lookCanadian rail workers vote on strike 9It is feared that it will affect the operation of ports on the west coast of Canada or even spill over to the US line;

Next, there areVariations such as labor negotiations at the East Terminal in September may trigger a rush.;

In addition,The U.S. Federal Reserve will hint that interest rates will be cut soon, and the maritime industry should benefit from research.With the release of funds from the bank, the purchasing power of the people is expected to increase, driving the volume of imports by sea to see an increase, when the rise will not rise, or how much still needs to be observed.

According to the Shanghai Export Freight Index (SCFI) 2-day quotes, down more than 400 points to 3,332.67 points, or 10.74 percent, for nearly a month and four consecutive weeks.

According to the industry, at the current high freight rate level, every 40-foot container is about US $6,100-6,500 for the US-West Line, US $8,800-9,400 for the US-East Line and US $8,100-8,300 for the European Line. Shipping companies and freight forwarders are still profitable. Unless SCFI falls below 1,500 points and the freight rate is close to the cost edge of shipping companies, the market needs to panic.

There are three main reasons why the shipping industry has the confidence to hold high freight rates. One is that at presentAlliance shipping companies have capacity market share of up to 80%, the second is the high degree of customer mastery, the third is the shipping companies during the epidemic are making excess profits, do not need to kill the price to grab goods to destroy the market.. At present, although the European and American routes attract small carriers to invest in a piece of the pie, the freight rate per 40-foot container on the western US line is more than US $1,000 and US $2,000 lower than that of the alliance shipping company, but the above three factors have limited impact.

Analysts estimate that Evergreen and Yangming Shipping will earn 3 and 1 stock each in the first three quarters of this year. There should be no suspense. Although there are still many variables to observe and fight in the fourth quarter, the shipping company will control the supply of shipping space through capacity and route allocation. If according to the container double male interest rate of 50%, high yield rate can still be long-term investment, this wave of Taiwan stocks kill red eye, container double male has oversold phenomenon.