Sudden! Israel suddenly declares willingness to accept US ceasefire proposal

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2024-06-03 14:21

According to CCTV News: On the 2nd local time, Ofir Falk, the chief foreign policy adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, said, Israel is willing to accept the new proposal put forward by the United States aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and ensuring the release of detainees, but Israel's combat objectives in the Gaza Strip have not changed.

Ophir Falk said in an interview on the 2nd that Israel has accepted the framework agreement promoted by US President Biden to end the Gaza War. Although the agreement has flaws, more work needs to be done.

Israel's defense minister says Israel will not accept Hamas continuing to rule Gaza at any stage of ending the war and is studying alternatives to the Islamist group. He said in a statement: "As we take important military actions, the defense agency is also evaluating the alternative to Hamas.

Israel's Minister of Defense, Joav Galant.

Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gerwell reiterated on the same day that if Netanyahu accepts the ceasefire proposal, his Jewish Power Party will withdraw from the ruling coalition, which will mean the collapse of the Netanyahu government.

Israel's Minister of National Security, Ben Gerville.

U.S. President Biden announced on May 31 a new proposal aimed at achieving a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and ensuring the release of detainees. Biden said the new proposal is the product of multiple rounds of diplomatic dialogue between the United States and Israel, Qatar, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries. Hamas issued a statement on the same day saying that Hamas "takes a positive view" of this related proposal.

The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on June 1 stating that Israel will not agree to a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip until the goals of releasing all detainees and eliminating Hamas's military forces are achieved.

Biden's Peace Plan

Biden initially expressed firm support for the Israeli offensive, but later publicly denounced the high number of civilian deaths caused by the operation. On Friday, Biden unveiled what he called the Netanyahu government's three-stage plan to end the war.

Biden said the first phase includes a cease-fire and the release of some hostages held by Hamas, after which the two sides will negotiate an indefinite cease-fire, and the second phase will release the remaining live captives.

This sequencing seems to mean that Hamas will continue to play a role in the gradual arrangement mediated by Egypt and Qatar-which may conflict with Israel's determination to eliminate the Iranian-backed Islamic group.

Biden said in his speech that his latest proposal "will create a better tomorrow for Gaza without Hamas in power". He did not elaborate on how this would be achieved, acknowledging that "there are many details to be negotiated from phase one to phase two".

In February, Biden said Israel agreed to stop fighting before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on March 10. Regrettably, however, such a ceasefire did not materialize. The main sticking point is Israel's insistence on discussing only a temporary truce until Hamas is eliminated. Hamas has shown no signs of backing down and has said it will release the hostages only if there is a permanent end to the war.

Attitudes of the Palestinian and Israeli sides

Although said,Israel has accepted the plan, but there are still big variables.

Falk reiterated Netanyahu's position that there will be no permanent cease-fire until all goals are achieved. Currently, Netanyahu is under pressure to maintain a coalition government. Israeli Finance Minister Bezaler Smotridge and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gwire made it clear that they rejected an immediate ceasefire. They threatened to resign and topple Netanyahu's ruling coalition if he accepted Biden's peace overtures.

Hamas has welcomed Biden's initiative for the time being, but the group's top official, Sami Abu Zuhri, said last Sunday that "Hamas is too big for Netanyahu or Biden to bypass or sideline it."

A day earlier, another Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, told Al Jazeera: "Biden's speech contains positive ideas, but we hope this can be achieved within the framework of a comprehensive agreement that meets our requirements."

Hamas demands guarantees to halt the offensive in Gaza, the withdrawal of all invading forces, the granting of freedom of movement to the Palestinians and the provision of reconstruction assistance. Israeli officials believe that this effectively means a return to the situation before October 7, 2023, when Hamas ruled Gaza and was committed to Israel's destruction.

Meanwhile, two Egyptian security sources said U. S., Israeli and Egyptian officials concluded talks in Cairo last Sunday. Egyptian security sources said that although Sunday's talks did not reach an agreement on reopening the crossings, positive results were achieved. at the meeting, the delegation of egypt expressed its readiness to allow european border observers to supervise the palestinian authority's border work if the palestinian authority agrees to resume work. Israeli and US officials said they would move quickly to remove obstacles to the operation of the crossing, Egyptian sources said.

Impact

However, as some actions of the Israeli army have aroused resentment and protests from major countries around the world, the justice of Israel's actions is gradually disappearing, which also makes the United States feel more pressure. Therefore, as the US election approaches in the second half of the year, the Biden administration has the impetus to ease or end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. So, what will be the impact of the de-escalation of the situation in this region?

The first may be oil and freight rates.Last Sunday, OPEC agreed to extend the 3.66 million-barrel-per-day production cut agreement by one year to the end of 2025, and will also extend the 2.2 million-barrel-per-day production cut agreement by three months to the end of September 2024, and then phase out the production cut agreement within a year from October 2024 to September 2025.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report that despite the extension of the production reduction agreement, the meeting is still regarded as bad news, because eight OPEC countries have indicated that they plan to phase out 2.2 million barrels per day between October 2024 and September 2025. Voluntary production cuts. However, some analysts believe that the easing of the geopolitical situation will inhibit the upward trend of oil prices. In addition, due to the tension in the Red Sea, the global shipping industry has a huge impact. If the Israeli-Palestinian conflict eases, shipping order in the region could be restored and the impact on global supply chains could be mitigated.

Secondly, the pattern of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to change considerably.Since the conflict between Palestine and Israel, Ukraine's combat effectiveness has been significantly weakened. If the Palestinian-Israeli conflict ends, the United States will spare a lot of energy to assist Ukraine, and in the eyes of the Western world, this is the "just battlefield". It can be expected that the conflict in the Russian-Ukrainian direction will become more intense. Of course, this may speed up the end of the conflict.

Finally, the situation in the US election.To end the two wars as winners would undoubtedly be a huge plus for the Biden administration. Otherwise (without even ending one), Biden will face greater pressure in the election. If Trump is elected, with his style and his own relationship with Putin and Netanyahu, there is a high probability that the war will end quickly. At that time, he and his Republican Party will probably win an unprecedented reputation, which may not be what Democrats want to see.

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